Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Census Numbers Conflict With Voter Registration

Bill Sloat at the Daily Bellwether is reporting on a key problem with the 2010 Census numbers.  Sloat reports the Adult vs Child population breakdown from the 2010 Census.  The total City of Cincinnati Population listed is 296,943 of which 231,237 are adult, aged 18 or older.  That leaves 65,706 children.

Now, let's compare this to the last few years totals of registered voters:
Year Registered Voters %
2010 209,259 90.50%
2009 225,680 97.60%
2008 229,413 99.21%
2007 212,303 91.81%
2005 212,202 91.77%
2004 215,454 93.17%
The % above is based on registered voters divided by the 2010 adult population of 231,237.

So, a few months before the Census time frame (April 1, 2010) we had approximately 98% voter registration. I had no idea we did that well. Similarly, seven months later we had 91% voter registration, a large drop, but it continued the normal drop from a presidential election, yet still very high.

What gives? We obviously don't have that high of a registration rate. We obvioulsy don't have that much voter registration error or fraud, no matter how many Republicans want claim such. We know both points are true because the article points out that similar rates can be seen county wide.  We also know this to be valid if we look at some other municipalities within the County.  As an example take Cheviot, not known as a liberal bastion, which has a 2010 population according to the census of 8,375 with 6,547 adults aged 18 years or more.  The voting registration for Cheviot in November for 2010 was 5,293 or 81%.

So, I'm sure that Republicans are thinking, hmmm, that is 10% lower than Cincinnati, must be something fishy going there.  Well, before you worry about Cincinnati, you might want to take a look at Indian Hill.  The Village of Indian Hill (actually a city) has a 2010 population of 5,785 with adults over age 18 totaling 4,221.  In the November election Indian Hill had a voter registration of 4,797.  If you know your math, and I know you do, that would equal a registration rate of 114%.  Sure, 500 kids could have turned 18 after April 1st, 2010, but before election day and they all could have registered to vote.  I doubt that.

No, I'm not claiming voter fraud is occurring en masse in Indian Hill, nor am I saying our Board of Election is careless. Instead I suggest the census numbers are wrong. There is little doubt that the entire county was undercounted.

6 comments:

  1. In 2006, the last off-year election, 68% of voting-age citizens were registered (per US Census Department). Using that number (although registration and turnout were lower in 2010), Cincinnati's voting-age population would be 307,734. That number does not include children. According to CPS, their enrollment is approximately 33,000. While there is some overlap between CPS enrollment and voting-age citizens, the CPS number also doesn't include children under ages 5-6. I don't think its a far reach to estimate Cincinnati's population closer to 340,000 people... unless the County Board of Elections numbers are seriously off, in which case we have other issues.

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  2. I would be curious to know how other cities fair regarding their census count:voter registration ratio.

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  3. I know for one that I never received a census nor was I visited by a census worker. I even tried to get them to mail me a census to no avail...I doubt the validity of the census.

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  4. I feel certain that the snail mail census system this year is as outdated as a VHS tape. I don't trust those numbers except when looking at general trends.

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  5. I didn't receive a census form either. If I'm not mistaken, the gov did 2 mailings in the city. Didn't receive either one. I damned sure didn't call them to ask for one, either. They don't need all the info they ask for to calculate their statistics for financial assistance & what not.

    A story I heard swirling was many people within the city ignored the form or fudged it. The theme was too much government snooping.

    As for the uptick in voter registration in Indian Hill, my best guess is families did have children turn 18 & urged them to register as part of their responsibility to their parenting duties. The kids complied to have their say in the process.

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