Friday, August 27, 2010

Conservative Poll Has Chabot-Driehaus Even

The Enqurier's Carl Weiser reported on the Politics Extra blog yesterday that in a Conservative Group's poll Chabot was leading Driehaus 47% to 45% with a +/- margin of error of 4.9%, making the race a dead heat.  This is something of a surprise.  Conservative polls are almost always going to lean towards the conservative candidate, usually based on the structure of the questions or the population based used for the sample.  A dead heat here goes against the conventional wisdom of this race, which in national press outlets was giving Chabot a big advantage.  This poll would sound to me on the surface to be good news for Driehaus, but there is a long way until November, and the economic news will drive this race.
 
This poll isn't a fair indication of much, but some of the internals are very interesting about people in the 1st district:
68% of those polled were age 50 or older.
45% of those polled make $75K or less per year.
71% of those polled are white.
50% are Male and 50% Female
51% are "Pro-Life" and 40% are "Pro-Choice"  (I thought this would be a much wider gap)
 
Steve Driehaus won:
17% of Conservatives
61% of Moderates
83% of Liberals

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