Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Council Election: What the Hell Happened?

Well, the council on the surface has appeared to have flipped to a majority Conservative 5. I think we need a new name, the rebirth of the Fiscal Five maybe? I don't know what we are going to call them, but what ever it is, with Charlie Winburn making up the fifth member, I pity the other four ever getting a trustworthy answer out of the nutty soon-to-be council member.

The bad news from the council race was the loss of Greg Harris. It is really a terrible thing to lose Greg. He was a level headed council member who consistently worked to find good solutions and to date has issued the only viable 2010 budget plan that I hope people look at even after Greg leaves office. I hope to see Greg stay around politics in Cincinnati, we need more people like him running for office.

The question from Greg's loss is: what happened? Well, I've done some Ward totals comparison analysis between 2007 and 2009 and I see two trends.

1) The more conservative wards came out in big strength yesterday, especially on the East side with Mt. Washington, Mt. Lookout, and Hyde Park (Wards 1,4,5) with a 6.08%, 4.40%, & 3.85% increase in voter turnout. Key West side wards generally increased between 2 and 3% over 2007 as well, adding to the strength of the former minority 4.

2) African-American Wards generally only moderately increased, or in the case of Avondale (Ward 13), West End/OTR (Ward 17), and the West End (Ward 18) all decreased from 2007, with Ward 18 dropping a whopping -1.21%.

With the increase of conservative voters, liberals like Greg were left off more ballots and with the loss of the African-American voter turnout, Greg was put behind the 8-Ball. Cole's drop also supports this idea, as she was ninth after the final, yet unofficial numbers were reported last night.

In the coming weeks I likely look over the numbers more and compare trends with the Mayor's race and Issue 9.

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