Sunday, November 02, 2008

Election Predictions Thread

Well, we've certainly talked this election to death. Time to to put up or shut up: what are your predictions for Tuesday? Here are mine (please remember, these are predictions, not endorsements):

National:
  • Obama wins, garnering more than 50% of the popular vote and a total of 282 electoral votes. He wins Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, and the Kerry states. McCain takes the remainder of the "battleground" states, including Ohio and Florida.
  • The Democrats pick up 5 Senate seats and 15-20 House seats.
  • Steve Driehaus beats Steve Chabot.
  • Jean Schmidt beats Wulsin and that other guy.
Ohio:
  • Cordray wins the AG race.
  • Issue 5 (essentially eliminating payday lending) fails.
  • Issue 6 (permitting a casino) fails.
  • Justices Stratton and O'Connor hold on to their seats on the Supreme Court, probably by 10 or more points each.
Hamilton County:
  • Greg Hartmann is elected county commissioner. Todd Portune also wins, although in a very close contest (probably no more than a 4-point victory).
  • Bob Goering is re-elected treasurer and Rebecca Groppe is re-elected recorder.
  • Martha Good is elected Clerk of Courts.
  • Pat Dewine is elected judge. Judge Nelson is re-elected. The race between Judge Luebbers and Judge Mock is too close to call (that race alone may force the counting of provisional ballots).
City of Cincinnati:
  • Issue 7 (banning red-light cameras) passes.
  • Issue 8 (re-instituting Council elections through proportional representation elections) fails, thanks to late radio spots and direct mail efforts.
What do y'all think?

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