When the Ohio Newspaper Poll has Obama ahead 49 to 46, is McCain toast in the Buckeye State? This poll has relied on prior election breakdowns too heavily and therefore had way too large of a Republican sample. Previously it had McCain ahead. At this point I believe you can at a minimum consider Obama ahead here beyond the margin of error.
I am not saying Ohio is a lock for Obama by any means, but at this point I think he has the advantage and it will take a huge 2004 type (anti-gay type) of GOTV on the GOP side for McCain to win Ohio. I don't think that support is there.