Thursday, August 16, 2007

Polling Council Races

Polling for Cincinnati City Council is often like reading tea leaves. This week's CityBeat digs into one such poll which shows a weak spot for at least a couple of incumbents.

I think this poll is going to lull some candidates into a false sense of security. Cole and Winburn top that list. They both appear to be trying to appeal to both the Black community and the Westside. You can win if you get votes from both camps, but those camps make for conflicting positions on issues.

I wonder who paid for this poll. The article indicates it was paid for by certain candidates. That would logically indicate that the results would be skewed to prior election results and demographics as well as to the voter base of the candidates paying for it. Since Ghiz appears to have confirmed her campaign was one of those paying for it, I would surmise this is a GOP poll. This is why I think Winburn did so well.

The article points out that this poll was conducted prior to the Qualls appointment, so the details of the poll are moot, but the trend of vulnerable incumbents is still likely valid.

As of now I only see two locks and one near lock on council seats: Cranley and Qualls are locks, with Crowley nearly a lock. The other six seats are not locked in the least. There are many candidates who could slide into one of those six spots. It is possible that Cole and Winburn fall short. They more than likely will win, but they will both need to campaign for it, not just go through the motions. Winburn will have the money to, will Cole?

Ghiz, Monzel, Berding, Bortz and Thomas all could easily lose. I would say at least two of the three will. Who else gets on council? Here is where the candidates who run the most vocal and solid campaigns get the edge. Harris, Bates, and Kaup have the potential. Smitherman likely will fade from his attention in this poll. Cooper could ride her name into office if the turnout goes her way. It will be a big fight and I see it getting nasty.

If there are campaign staffers out there reading this, please make sure you provide sources when you "lead" dirt on your opponents. What ever blog or journalist you give them will most likely not post anything about it without some support for its validity.

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