Cincinnati City Council Election February 2025 Update

Big News in the Cincinnati City Council 2025 Election: Council Member Victoria Parks announced in January that she will not be seeking reelection to City Council.  That provides a very small shake up to the race. I will repeat: a very SMALL shake up.  At this point there are no indications that the domination from Democrats will face any serious challenge.  Candidates that are serious are raising money NOW. I have identified nine candidates raising money via Actblue, a fundraising application that caters to Democratic candidates. Those candidates are serious.  They are taking the needed steps to get support from the Democratic Party. The party has stated they will hold a meeting in May to vote on the recommendation of the nomination committee.  That leaves little time to demonstrate to committee members that you are a serious candidate. Time is running out for anyone else who has taken out petitions to run and is not raising money.

Getting the Democratic Party endorsement is best way to win. Getting a Democratic Party nomination may be the only way to win in Cincinnati.

The Charter Committee, long considered Cincinnati's third political party, has done a press relations offensive to demonstrate they still exist.  At this point they are being lead by Steve Goodin, a Republican, and their agenda seems to be a NIMBY push to win friends (donors) amongst the rich in Hyde Park.  They have moved their office to the Towne Properties HQ in Mt. Adams.  That makes it clear, at least to me, that the Charter Committee is under the control of Republicans. The Bortz family, long time Charter Committee supporters, are known as Republicans.  At this point, if you are a Republican that has not divorced themselves from Trump, publicly, then you are complicit with the Trump Regime.  Goodin last ran for County wide office and pushed a negative campaign designed to tap into hardcore conservatives. He lost. At best this effort is one that is designed to keep the Charter Party relevant and allow it to try to push Charter Amendments to the ballot that are designed to help Republicans claw back power in the City.  Being NIMBY is the trend that Republicans in Cities have been using in other places.  Trying to exploit the fears of home owners is a trite Republican tactic. It is not surprising for Republicans like Goodin to use fear as a wedge. Goodin seems happy with Trump in office, so fear seems like his play and laying on the Charter cloak is how he wants to build up a powerbase. He won't get anyone elected without big name recognition, money, and campaign activity. This effort can therefore be read as a way to build a new conservative power in the City, hiding the Republican Party smell. I think this will be a failure, but the local media will give them all the free press they want and will continue to push any negative story about Democratic candidates and the party.

The Republican Party is now a fascist party lead by Trump and those following him.  The Republican Party is attempting to destroy Cities.  That is not hyperbole.  That has been going on for the better part of two decades. There will not be any serious candidates running for City Council this year.  There are two unserious Republican Mayoral candidates that have one two purposes: 1) gain attention for the candidate to be better known as a way to gain influence and money in Conservative media and 2) Give the Republicans another channel to attack a City. This manufactured PR effort already has gained the attention of local journalists who want to increase their suburban (non-city) audience. All this will amount to no Republicans getting elected this election.

Left wing political groups will likely whine a bit, but their usual failures will keep them from doing anything beyond getting social media attention solely withing left wing circles.

This leaves us with a campaign that has some movement, but appears to be forming a clear path forward with nine Dems who would likely get endorsed. I expect this to be boring campaign, if you just ignore the Republicans and Leftists making pointless noise.  I am not going to give oxygen to pointless, so do not expect another update without something to report on the candidates.

Incumbant Candidates

Anna Albi (D)*
Jeff Cramerding (D)*
Mark Jeffreys (D)*
Scotty Johnson (D)*
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*
Evan Nolan (D)*
Meeka Owens (D)*
Seth Walsh (D)*

Announced Candidates

Sol Kersey (D)

Taken Out Peititions to Run

Audricia Brooks (D)
Laketa Cole (D)
Jerry Corbett (I)
LeTecia Cunningham (I)
Ozie Davis III (D)
Ryan James (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
William Moore (I)
Brandon Nixon (I)
Michael Patton (R)
Raffel Prophett (I)
Stephan Pryor (D)
Tyrone Roberson (I)
Bart Rosenberg (D)
Gwen Summers (I)

Sharetha Collier (I) is also listed as having taken out petitions, but the address listed is in Woodlawn, outside of the City Limits. Additionally the person who has been registered to vote with the same name/address is no longer listed under that name on Hamilton County's voter registration list I have as of last month. I will monitor the lists to see if anything changes.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

News Media Continues to Fail Cincinnati

If you pay attention to Cincinnati politics, you should have seen the news articles about JD Vance’s half-brother running for Mayor of Cincinnati. Yes, I am annoyed by them.  Sure, coverage of local politics is a positive, but this was not about local politics. This was about tapping into fame for audience share.

The local media did the usual bad job of reporting and just wrote puff pieces. They can not afford to offend Republicans, so they create press release articles that add nothing taking away from Vance’s brother’s obvious goal of getting attention. 

For those living in the fake world of influencers, he is trying to build his brand. 

He has virtually no chance to win the Mayoral election and likely has no honest interest in Cincinnati government. I doubt he knows a damn thing about the City. In 2023, the last City election, the guy didn’t even vote. This should be a disqualifying fact, but local media just was something to entertain the Butler and Warren county Republicans, so facts don’t matter, just the narrative they wants to build. If this guy cared about the City, he would be running for City Council and local journalists know this. Instead of dismissing this candidate, like the other unknowns running, they give him MORE attention and make it all positive. That is a failure.

On top of the bad local reporting, the national and International press pushed out the headlines on Vance’s brother as a way to get clicks. The majority of them do not know the political demographics of the City of Cincinnati and could not discern it from the Cincinnati MSA. It is sad that so many national "political journalists" ether did not bother to research the viability of a Republican running for Mayor in the City of Cincinnati. If they did, they would question this guy’s sincerity from the start. Another failure, this time from afar.

Cincinnati City Council Election January 2025 Update

Welcome to Cincinnati City Council Election Year 2025! We are 295 days away from the November election and there is some surprising news: We have a significant number of people who have taken out petitions to run for council. The BOE's website snuck this list in on Friday and it very much may not be a complete list, as three rows with blank names were included on the file and three incumbents were not listed as having taken out petitions to run yet.

Most of the names that are non-incumbents on the list of petition takers are new to me, so I don't know anything about them or their political leanings. There is one well known name included is Laketa Cole, a former member of City Council. This is a surprise because she had a very recent criminal conviction within the last few years. She has name recognition, but not all of that is good and she's been out of office since 2010 when she resigned for a state job. She did not last at State and was returned to City Employment by John Cranley. I would not expect a Party Endorsement, but there are Democrats who want a mess.  The problem is that Cole has been aligned with the Cranley crowd, far more moderate than progressive wing of the party that likes to attack the Democratic Party from within almost as much as Republicans like to do from the outside.  I can see yet another nasty endorsement process.  There is no good reason that process is made public.

Yes, we also have a Mayoral election this year as well. At this point there are six people who have taken out petitions for the May Primary, including current Mayor Aftab Pureval. If less than three people appear on the primary ballot, there won't be a primary election for Mayor. None of the other names are anyone I recognize and don't have any presence online. Unless those who have pulled petitions are doing so hide another candidate, then Aftab won't face any significant challengers. Republican Chris Smitherman seemed to cherish being appointed Vice-Mayor by John Cranley, so it would not surprise me that if there is a candidate that is trying to sneak around behind the scenes in desperation

Incumbant Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*
Victoria Parks (D)*
Jeff Cramerding (D)*
Mark Jeffreys (D)*
Scotty Johnson (D)*
Seth Walsh (D)*
Anna Albi (D)*
Evan Nolan (D)*(Appointed in 2024)

Possible Candidates 

Audricia Brooks (I)
Gwen Summers (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
Laketa Cole (D)
Stephan Pryor (I)
LeTecia Cunningham (I)
Brandon Nixon (I)
Tyrone Roberson (I)
Barton Rosenberg (I)

Sharetha Collier (I) is also listed as having taken out petitions, but the address listed is in Woodlawn, outside of the City Limits. Additionally the person who has been registered to vote with the same name/address is no longer listed under that name on Hamilton County's voter registration list I have as of last month. I will monitor the lists to see if anything changes.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Local Governments Need to Use Wider Social Media Platforms, Immediately

With the demise of Twitter and now Meta creating a stench that will drive away users, local governments need to include all significant social media platforms.  This should not be a significant expense and if managed correctly would be a very limited increase in staff time.  The City of Cincinnati and Hamilton County, include its agencies, should lead the way.  The platforms that need to be added include Mastodon, BlueSky, and Reddit.

This should have started happening years ago. This is a matter of public safety. There are alerts and updates that go out on Facebook and Twitter that thousands of locals are not seeing, as thy do not use those platforms.

It would be very bad to make this into a political issue, as fools will certain do if they read this.  If there are other sites with significant users, they can be added as well.  This is not about removing any platforms, no matter how toxic and useless they may be. I fear that there may be some elements in the IT departments of local governments that suffer from political biases that are using outright false information to keep these sites from being used.  If that is true, local elected officials should get outside consultation on the topics.

Getting credible information from governments and public institutions is critical for any society to effectively function. This should be a simple request that does not require any deliberation or debate. Just get some accounts created and start informing the public.

Happy Election Year 2025, Cincinnati!

 Just when you want to forget about elections and politics, 2025 has arrived and for Cincinnati that means City Council and Mayoral Elections are this fall. Yes, I can see the joy in your face.  The glee of a local election is like a melted plastic spatula stuck to the burner on the stove:  You can't undue your failure, just fix your mistakes.

The mistakes with local elections in Cincinnati at this point are those who don't vote. Yes, the knee jerk reaction of many who pretend to follow politics is to opine about those in power.  Whenever I hear people complain about those in power in a Democratic City, I can put them in one of two camps: 1) They are a Republican/Conservative whining about not being in power or 2) They are a leftist who wants power and can't come to grips with the fact that their extremist views are not popular.

What sucks about local politics is that most of the people paying attention are extremists or cranks.  Yeah, you could call me a crank, but I am more of the nerdish observer that is content with a main stream Democratic Majority is not against Business Groups, but wants to have reasonable regulations and checks on them.

When local elections come around we tend to get lots of idiots out there.  You know you are.  Various fringe groups, special interests, and Right Wing assholes that are looking to get attention.  In 2025 getting attention for a local election is very difficult.  The public is extra ignorant these days.  People under 40 will barely vote.  What is sad is that those who actually turned out just a a couple months ago will not bother to vote again for years.  I blame them for there idiocy. 

Left leading groups want to blame Republicans for why they don't vote.  Sure, there are efforts to make it more difficult to vote from Republicans.  Yes, these efforts disproportionally affect the poor and racial minorities. That is not an excuse for people who can, but don't vote.  The problem is with adults who don't vote.  Yeah, adults, everyone who is old enough to vote is an adult.  They are charged with being responsible for themselves, but they can't bother to vote. So 18-55 years old would be the age range with shitty voter turnout. People have been worried about alienating the younger voters.  Well, they alienated themselves.  It is time to just call them out as lazy fucking morons. 

IF you can't get off your ass to vote one time a year, then I am will happily call you a lazy fuck.  Yes, the lowest common denominator type defense is the first reaction that I get, but that is just as lazy.  I am not talking about the exceptions. I am talking about the dumb fucks who spend their free time playing video games and smoking weed.  Maybe they watch tik tok or some asshole video from YouTube, but that is such a bullshit way to live.

These ignorant fucks just whine that they can do nothing to change things.  The problem: these fucks don't know what needs to be changed.  They are passive shits who are feed crap and think they are making choices.  They are just sheep. IT is not a surprise that an increasing number of younger men have become so intellectually lazy that they fall for sexist fascism Trumpists preach.

The only ones make an attempt to be activists are those with extremist views.  They are making an effort, but are have their own problems with reality.  They live in a mythical world that thinks purity is best and protest without achievable goal. They make noise and do little else. When you fail to achieve anything, other than pissing off people who could help your cause, you have no credibility.  For Activists, getting attention is more important than achieving goals.

Whilst my rant continues: I must also point out those who are knee jerk against those in office.  They don't have a consistent sense of ideology, but think they do when they want to remove other from power. No sense of what that will bring (See Trump), but they think change will be better.  The problem is just more ignorance.  They can't articulate what needs to change, just that change needs to happen.  This mindset hits into populists more than leftists. When they know they can't change, they don't bother to participant and point fingers at others or the system, anything but their own ignorance.

Do not forget that the Republicans and Trumpists will do something this year to hurt the city, it is their way.  COASTers or the like will make trouble and get suburban funding to make it happen. They could claim a "legitimate" effort in City politics if they get Chris Smitherman to run for mayor.  Based on my observation of Smitherman over the last 20+ years in local politics, it is obvious that his dream is to be Mayor of Cincinnati.  He has no realistic chance to win. He has pretended for most of last 20+ years to NOT be a Republican.  This past year he sloppily danced around direct support for Trump, something he has avoided.  He is surrounded by hardcore Trumpists as his core potential campaign leadership. I do not recall seeing him directly endorse Trump, but he pushed fringe issues championed by Trump and Vance. Before I left Twitter you could interpret his tweets as a bad RFKjr imitation.  I think Smitherman is unhinged and delusional. As the Republican Party's sane wing has drunk the Kool Aide or gone on an ethics holiday, they could see it as a wise play to try and demonize the City with Smitherman as their voice and a ploy to gain more black votes for County elections. Exploiting black men is not new for Republicans, but what kind of man allows himself to be exploited?

Yes, happy election year, Cincinnati! This will be a clusterfuck. People will bitch about the lack of candidates that they "like."  When people do that, they likely don't have a clue about the candidates.  They don't know about any of the issues facing the city and are not going to make any efforts to find out. Unless outside group put shitty Charter Amendments on the ballot, no issues will be discussed.  We can't have discussions on issue because any issues to be discussed will be usurped into a national debate that has little or just no relevance to the actual issue.  Groups will form and demonize others who disagree with them on the issue.  There will be no room for compromise.

The best thing you can do, is to ignore the assholes who are pushing you to join their cause. 98% of them are full of shit and lying about some part of their "cause." I observed this from the Rail Road sale. A bipartisan coalition of asses opposed the sale based on lies. It was sad to see people do this and join forces with extremists. Right Wing extremists and Left Wing Extremists mixed with some who in the past were not extremists and those non-extremists lost a lot of credibility. They burned so many bridges that I don't see how they get back into politics, locally. I don't suppose it matters anyway, least of all toe them.

I expect this year's election to end up two ways: 1) Democratic candidates win a fairly quiet and easy reelection or 2) Democratic candidates win a nasty election, maybe one or two less council members, but maintain their vast control of the City.

The only question at hand: Will the Republican Party OR the Charter Committee actually field any candidates for the general election? I will not be surprised if we don't see them publicly endorse any candidates. When they complain about the lack of choice, they get all of blame for that.

Hamilton County, Ohio Presidential Election Results by Neighborhood

 The results for Hamilton County shifted slightly towards Republicans in the Presidential race.  The table below lists out the Cincinnati neighborhoods and County municipality or township.

The data used for the Cincinnati Neighborhoods are approximations based on assignment of each precinct to one neighborhood. Therefore the underlying totals do is not exactly match the defined boundaries by census data. The County municipalities and Townships match up as precincts are tied to municipal borders.

The results by area are not surprising. There are some margins that are surprising. Obvious the conservative far west portion outside the City has vote totals like rural farm country. The east and north areas outside the City show a far more moderate or even Dem majority. 

In the City the same few Republican dominated areas exist. There a few more areas smaller Dem margin than one would expect Avondale, Camp Washington, Corryville, CUF, East Westwood, Lower Price Hill, Madisonville, Mt. Auburn, Riverside, South Fairmount, Villages at Roll Hill, and Westwood and saw Republican vote gains of over 2.5%.  Lower Price Hill increased over 6%.

Some neighborhoods saw percentage gains Dems, oddly California was the highest by far at over 6%. The Republican neighborhood is small, so a small shift of a couple dozen people shows out more. Most had smaller variances. Dems in HamCo worried about local Democrats and that helped with local candidates. State and National Dems do not have a clue about Ohio and don't seem like they are trying at all.

2024 Hamilton County Election Turnout Analysis

Turnout in Hamilton County was down 3.5% compared to 2020. Here's a breakdown by City vs Non-City:

If you want a simple representation of the Macro analysis of the election, all you have to do is compare this to a few other counties in Ohio:

Turnout fell in suburban counties, but less than it dropped in the urban county.  The hypothesis that follows is that Republican votes retained more from 2020, while Democratic votes dropped. The two data points that are available for additional review are age and race.  Race is very limited, as it relies on census data in a precinct and can't be tied directly to voter's data.  When looking at areas with a majority black population, there is a larger drop in turnout.  The difference is over 2%, which while significant, is not conclusive with the sourcing of the data.  Age, on the other hand, can be tied directly to voters.

Here is a breakdown by generation within Hamilton County.

This data is based off of the Registered voter database.  That data is live and not exactly the same as certified results, but the total differential is at most a few hundred. My definition of each generation is consistent by year.  The inflated size of the Boomer generation is tied to the commonly accepted period of the "Baby Boom" and rounded up to 20 years.  Using 15 years for all other subsequent generations, as well as the Silent generation, provides for reasonable consideration of a generation.

Changes in registration numbers for Zoomers and Millennials contributes to some of their variation.  Millennials had a significantly higher drop in registrations than GenX. This would follow logically if you consider that Millennials are more likely to be either newer parents moving to the Exurbs or more likely moving farther away for work.  Additionally, since they have not been consistent voters, they could also be more likely to have been purged for inactivity or other partisan targeting.

Zoomers had a natural increase in registration, as more people reach age 18, but the turnout lagged far more than older generations. Young voters in Hamilton County continue their propensity to have lower turnout.